Tonight, the 22-26 Mavs host the 36-15 Raptors for the final game between the two teams this season. In their first meeting, Toronto got the best of Dallas, winning 116-107 behind 21 points from Kawhi Leonard. Leonard recently missed four games for rest purposes. On Friday, he returned and scored 32 points, 7 rebounds, 5 assists, and two steals. Dallas rookie of the year front runner Luka Dončić put up 32 points, 8 rebounds, and 8 assists in the Mavs Friday night win against the Pistons. In order to beat the second best team in the East, Dallas will need to try to slow down a well rested Kawhi Leonard and try to win in the below two areas of the stat sheet.

Turnovers

The Toronto Raptors are 8th in the NBA in points scored off of opponent’s turnovers at 18 per game. They are in the top 10 in steals per game at a little over 8. They also force their opponents to turn the ball over 15 times per game, which is top 10. Unfortunately for Dallas, this is not an ideal scenario for pulling out a win against Toronto. Dallas struggles with turnovers, which is to be expected when you have two very young guards running the offense. The Mavs average 15.5 turnovers per game, putting them at 26th in the NBA. Opponents are scoring an average of 17 points off of those turnovers each game, which is actually good considering it is the NBA average. But, this team is the second best in the East for a reason, and if Dallas plays a sloppy game and comes up slightly short, look to see who won the turnover battle. Ball security will be something Coach Rick Carlisle emphasizes this game, especially with The Claw lurking around on defense.

Fast Break Points

What happens when opponents turn the ball over? It creates fast break opportunities that lead to easy buckets. The Raptors are top 5 in the NBA with 18 fast break points per game. Dallas is second to last in the NBA this season by allowing opponents to score 17 fast break points per game. Sure, not all turnovers lead to fast break points, but most turnovers do lead to the offense pushing the ball up the floor while the defense scrambles to get set. The fast break opportunities created by poor ball security can lead to easy buckets, fast break points or not.

Bottom line: Dallas must take care of the ball to win this game.

The Dallas Mavericks host the Toronto Raptors tonight at 6 PM central time on Fox Sports Southwest.