Trade Deadline Series: Mavs Player Value – Monta Ellis

We are less than 24 hours away before the deadline, so we have only 2 players left to look at in terms of their value on the trade market.  We will be concluding our series tomorrow, so keep an eye out for that as well. Today we take a look at….

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Monta Ellis

What can the Mavs yield with arguably their biggest trade asset this deadline season?

Salary:

$8,000,000

Age:

28 years, 4 months

Season Stats:

19.3 PPG – 3.5 RPG – 5.7 APG

Potential: 

Has most likely reached it in being a great scoring 2 guard. Can start for almost any team in this league or could come off bench and likely be a strong 6^th man of the year candidate in that situation.

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Trade Value:

Signed to a three-year, $25.08 million contract. Ellis will be paid $8 million in 2013-14. The final year of his deal is a player option. Ellis declined a player option that would have paid him $11 million to stay in Milwaukee this season. He also turned down a three-year, $36 million extension
offer from the Bucks’ He settled for a significantly lower offer from the Mavs. This was to likely focus on winning at this point in his career (certainly justified since Milwaukee is a mess this season). Ellis essentially slipped through the cracks of free agency and the Mavs were very fortunate to land him basically for the same price as the inferior OJ Mayo wanted. When the Mavs first signed Ellis, there was an initial concern as to how he would mesh with Dirk Nowitzki and Rick Carlisle. Those concerns were quickly quitted. Ellis came running out of the gates as he averaged 22 points in his first month as a Mav, while shooting an above average 45%. Ellis has cooled off a bit as of late but is still a threat to go for 30 points on any given night. He has really revived the 2 man game with Dirk Nowitzki that has been absent from the Mavs for probably 2 seasons now.  As for his defense, offense could be the best form of defense. Being able to get back after a made basket and getting back into position would certainly help versus having to defend in transition. Ellis is simply under sized and underweight compared to average 2 guards in the league. His speed and quickness do help him (averaging just a shade under 2 steals a game) but it’s no doubt some of the best wings have their biggest games when Ellis is defending them. Ellis has somewhat redefined his game this year, having a great campaign effieciency wise. Ellis (who in the past has been notorious for taking ill-advised long 2 pointers, is currently 3^rd in the league in drives to the rim, per NBA .com. It seems he has acknowledged his questionable decision making and Rick Carlisle has made him fit into the system. Compared to last year ( where he shot just 41.6 from the floor last season and shot the lowest 3-point percentage in the league among qualifiers), Ellis is up to 46.1 % from the floor and about 31% from 3 while also hitting on 80% of his trips to the line. Those numbers are good for Ellis’ first year in Carlisle’s system. Ellis is an underrated passer who leds the team in that category and isn’t afraid to thread the needle on no looks or behind the back passes.

Trade value wise, Ellis’ contract includes a player option for the third season, so he’ll likely hit the market again in the summer of 2015 unless he reaches a deal on an extension with the Mavs. With Ellis being locked in for at least 18 more months, there’s the possibility of Ellis being a piece in a blockbuster deal. The 2 guard in the NBA is almost in a stand still right now (with no real superstars other than James Harden) and Ellis is likely a top 7 or 8 player at his position. That said, if a team really wanted Ellis this deadline season to build around for a few years. The Mavs could easily receive a slew of young players and first round draft picks (similar to the James Harden trade with the Rockets and Thunder 2 years ago). However, the odds are much better that Ellis will play a critical role in Dallas for at least the next two seasons. He’s likely a corner stone for the franchise (for now) and he’d only be moved if big names were involved. In any scenario, if Ellis is moved, it would certainly be a franchise altering move. If the team decides to keep him till the end of this contract, look for Ellis to stay a Mav for possibly the rest of his career.

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Days until trade deadline: 1 day

Stay tuned!