Harrison Barnes has been one of the few bright spots of the Mavericks’ season so far (Hoops Habit).
2016 has been one of the most insane years in recent memory. From the tragic death of Harambe to the insanity of the Presidential Election, this terrible start to the season for the Mavericks has just fit the theme of this dark year.
Pretty much since when it was announced that Dirk Nowitzki would miss the home opener against the Houston Rockets, it has been a downhill slide of injuries and nauseating losses that hasn’t showed many signs of slowing down.
With the league’s worst record at 2-13, you’d think the towel has already been thrown and the white flag is being raised. Unfortunately, the Mavericks have endured this terrible start in a season where the vast majority of the Western Conference has been insanely mediocre because of disappointing starts by the likes of the Portland Trail Blazers, Utah Jazz and the young Minnesota Timberwolves. So even with the league’s worst record and an 8 game losing streak, as of Sunday morning, the Mavs sit just 5.5 games back of the 8th seed in the Western Conference.
With Dirk Nowitzki playing the last two games and Deron Williams returning from injury in Friday night’s dreadful loss at the defending championship Cavaliers, it’s likely that inside the locker room there are messages of “We can still do this!” While that might be slightly true, there is a very serious question to ask:
Is it even worth it to salvage this terrible start by squeezing out another playoff appearance?
The answer is no.
This Mavericks season can be salvaged, but not by a playoff birth. It can be done in the following three ways.
Be Competitive, But Stay in the Lottery at All Costs
No matter where you stand on “tanking” or going for it, there’s no way of denying the importance of at least being a competitive team. If you want to have any chance of being a respectable franchise, you have to at least hang around in contests and win a few games. Nobody wants to watch a team win 10-20 games like the Mavs teams of the early 90s forced people to go through.
During one of their two wins so far this season, the Mavs faced a young Lakers team that has benefited from investing in a youth movement.
If Dallas can manage to finish with somewhere between 25-35 wins, that’d be the ideal outcome. The Mavericks have 67 games left this season. Let’s say say go 33-34 the rest of the way and finish with a 35-47 record. Doing that will mean they played respectable basketball the rest of the season, won some games (with plenty of those coming against playoff teams and even some elite competition), and still put themselves in position to get a top 10 pick in the lottery.
This is probably the best outcome Dallas can hope for at this point, because going all out last season with relative health (besides Chandler Parsons) put the Mavericks at just 42-40 for the season. A comparable roster this season with considerably better health than they’ve seen so far would likely finish with a similar record maybe slightly better.
A finish like this gives everyone on both sides of the aisle what they want: A lottery pick in the draft for the “rebuild” shouters and a competitive team for those who want the best for their Mavs.
Most importantly, playing like this gives Dirk Nowitzki a reason to let him and the Mavs decide if they should exercise the $25 million option in his contract for next season or decline the option and let him resign for less if he wanted to go that route again. Either way, a respectable finish should keep the Big German around for at least Year 20 in Big D.
Trade Andrew Bogut, Deron Williams and Devin Harris
Play as well as you can but trade two members of your starting lineup and a valuable member of your bench? Kind of conflicting messages, right?
It has long been a popular opinion that Dirk Nowitzki+Rick Carlisle has been enough to field a playoff caliber team. We’ve essentially seen that since in the years since Dallas won the championship in 2011. They’ve fielded make-shift rosters around the two franchise pillars with the idea that the flexibility of salary cap for free agency is more important than committing to any “core” they’ve assembled in recent memory.
While this pair likely isn’t enough anymore due to Nowitzki’s age and slight decline in play, adding a 24 year-old Harrison Barnes playing like a borderline All-Star should definitely be enough to field a competitive team. Therefore, shed the expiring contracts of Andrew Bogut and Williams and get rid of Devin Harris, an older player who’s only going to stunt the development of younger players on the roster.
Although he obviously still has some NBA years left in him, the Mavs have little reason to hang onto Andrew Bogut much longer.
After striking out in free agency again this summer, the Mavericks decided to focus on getting younger. The Mavericks current average age is 28.6. Certainly lower than it has been in years past, but certainly with room for improvement. Take away the combined 97 years between the aforementioned trio, and you lower the team’s average age by about a year and a half to 27.25.
There’s really no reason to keep the expiring contracts of Bogut and Williams. They’re far more valuable to a contending team looking to shore up some holes on their roster than a team trying to transition to a younger core like the Mavericks. After Matthew Dellavedova left the Cavs in free agency, surely the defending champs would welcome the experience and “still-there” flashes of Deron Williams to serve as a backup for the outstanding Kyrie Irving.
Surely some team could use the services of Bogut for a playoff push or run. He’s been a disappointment on offense for the Mavs so far, but his rebounding and size still have an undeniable effect on the game.
As for Harris, he’s just not someone who has value to this team going forward. He’s injured too often and would just take away minutes from younger guards on the roster like Jonathan Gibson and Seth Curry. If you can coax any team into taking on his $4.2 million salary for next season without taking on any money for next season, make the move. The minor cap-relief and freeing up the minutes would be worth it. Harris has been a major player for this franchise through the years, but a veteran of his status would need to understand the reality of the situation.
The hope in trading any of these players wouldn’t be to really get anything back that helps immediately. It would be to acquire draft picks either for this year or in the future. If you trade any of them to a contender, you’ll be getting a late first round pick that won’t have much value on its own. However, if you pair it with your own that figures to be either in the top ten or early teens, you have a chance to move up into the top five picks in what is being portrayed as one of the best drafts in recent history. It’s better to be in a position to get one of the more “Slam dunk” picks in the top five than to get into that hit-or-miss range that is anything really out of the top seven or eight picks.
Create a Foundation for the Franchise With/Without Dirk
The Mavs reason for gambling so much in free agency this decade has been to try and sign that face of the franchise player that can take over for Dirk Nowitzki. While they’ve swung and miss multiple times, it’s this writer’s belief that the reason isn’t that “nobody wants to play in Dallas.” It’s that the Mavericks simply didn’t have enough in place each summer to make a star confident that they had a winning future in a Mavericks uniform.
Each summer, the Mavericks have signed veteran players to one year deals or team-friendly deals that allow them to maintain cap-flexibility going forward. This allows them to have all the cap space necessary to sign players, but not have anything in place other than an aging Dirk to tempt star players. While there’s no doubt that Nowitzki is an all-time great player, it just doesn’t make sense for star players to hitch their wagon to a player in his late 30’s.
To give Dallas a bright future, it will require a strong finish to the season by the likes of youngsters Dwight Powell, Seth Curry and Justin Anderson.
If the Mavericks finish this season with a respectable win total in the low to mid 30’s following their disastrous start, it will likely be because Barnes continues to play at a level at least similar to what he’s doing now, Seth Curry continues to score in double digits and young players under contract for multiple years like Justin Anderson and Dwight Powell improve their play and prove to be valuable pieces going forward.
Add a quality draft pick to this mix and you actually have something in place for a free agent to see and think, “Hey, I could win there.” That’s the Mavericks best chance for a quick return to contending in the Western Conference. Don’t confuse that with a for-sure chance to win a title, but it’s the best way to at least get themselves back to realistically competing for having homecourt advantage in a playoff series or two.
It’s easy to think this season is lost and there’s no reason to watch/attend games. It’s more likely that the finish to this season has become more important than any in recent Mavericks history. The near and distant future of this franchise may hinge on how they play out the final 67 games of their schedule and how the front office decides to shape the roster before free agency next July 1st.
MFFL’s soak it all in because there’s something to enjoy each and every night. That begins with tonight’s contest against the New Orleans Pelicans.
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