Photo courtesy of Brian Spurlock/USA Today Sports
The Dallas Mavericks will enter this offseason with needs essentially all over the roster. Assuming they’re able to retain incumbent starting center Nerlens Noel, their biggest need is undoubtedly the point guard position. Apologies to J.J. Barea and Kevin “Yogi” Ferrell, but they are not the long term solution to run the Mavs offense.
Luckily for Dallas, there will be numerous opportunities to (attempt to) fix that problem this summer.
The Mavericks will have the number 9 pick in next month’s draft and will hope to find a long-term contributor there. Depending on which mock draft you check, the Mavericks could find a point guard in Dennis Smith, Jr out of North Carolina State or 18 year old Frenchman Frank Ntilikina, or they could draft the alleged “next Dirk” in Lauri Markannen out of Arizona. I would assume that if either Smith, Jr. or Ntilikina was there for Dallas at number 9, they’d take them in a heartbeat. For what it’s worth, The Vertical and Draft Express mock drafts project the Mavs would pass on Ntilikina and take Markannen.
If the Mavericks don’t address the point guard position on draft night, it’s almost a certainty they’ll be dishing out big money to a free agent point guard this summer because there’s no way they’d enter another season trying to start Yogi Ferrell every night, right? … RIGHT?
It’s been well-chronicled that the free agency game hasn’t treated the Mavs well, but this summer could be different if they target the right people from the beginning.
There could be enormous, household names like Steph Curry and Chris Paul on the free agent market come July 1st, but it’s unlikely they’d leave their current teams and they definitely wouldn’t come to Dallas if they did. There are two more tiers of quality, starting point guards available this summer.
Kyle Lowry
He’s 31 years old and has been an All-Star the last three seasons in Toronto. Obviously, he’s a great player and any team would be lucky to have him. However, let me say again that he’s 31. He’s coming off an injury-riddled year where he played just 60 games and even missed the Raptors’ last two playoff games where they were swept by the Cleveland Cavaliers.
A contract for Lowry will likely start around $30 million in the first season. Not only is it unlikely the Mavericks would be able to create that much cap room (probably would take Dirk Nowitzki playing for less than $10 million next season and/or trading Wesley Matthews— good luck finding a taker), but there just isn’t a good match between the player and the team. The Mavs are in a modest rebuild and Lowry is looking for a ring or at least a team that won’t get swept in the playoffs.
Jrue Holliday and Jeff Teague
Holliday has been somewhat injury-prone throughout his career– has averaged missing 17 games per season over his 8 years in the league– and that has especially been the case his four years in New Orleans. He’s only 26 and could be had for likely a decent amount less than Lowry, so I could get behind a pursuit of him. But the Pelicans, who are still fresh off the trade for DeMarcus Cousins, won’t have a first round draft pick and will probably do what it takes (offer that home team fifth year in the contract) to keep him in the Big Easy.
Teague is coming off a not too fun year in Indiana where the Pacers greatly underachieved and all but guaranteed that Paul George will eventually be leaving. Playing for the Pacers without Paul George… is that something anyone willingly signs up to do? Teague will be 29 when the season tips off, and maybe the league-wide disappointment towards the Pacers will slightly decrease the asking price for Teague somewhere to the $20 million per year range.
A Teague-Matthews-Harrison Barnes-Dirk Nowitzki-Noel starting lineup with Seth Curry and Lauri Markannen being the first name off the bench? I’m into it on paper. Then think about it money-wise.
Matthews: $18 million next season with another year on his contract. Teague: $20+ million over 4 years. Barnes $23 million next season and beyond. Nerlens Noel: somewhere between $20-$25 million over 4 or 5 years. The cap isn’t going to go up $10 million dollars every year. You might be stuck with that core for a little while, and like I chronicled in a previous piece, you need to leave room to resign Seth Curry next summer.
Where does a team like that get you in this current NBA climate? That’s a question that’s tough to ask with it seeming like nobody can beat Golden State in the West or the Cavaliers in the East the way they’re currently constructed, but things will change slowly over the next few years.
An important question for the Mavs if Ntilikina or Smith, Jr. is there at number 9 on draft night: Why pay a point guard a close to max contract when you have a rookie-scale contract doing the same job for a team that will likely see similar win/loss results either way?
That question is why I expect the Mavericks to find a way to draft a point guard on draft night and stay relatively quiet in free agency this summer, but I’m not the one who makes these decisions. All we can do is speculate and we can all agree that there aren’t many things that are as fun as that.
You must be logged in to post a comment Login
You must log in to post a comment.