Here’s the Spark Notes introduction: 

 

90% of the last twenty NBA Champions were ranked in the top 12 in both Offensive and Defensive Ratings. So we rank teams by their combined rankings (both Offensive and Defensive Rating) to see where the Mavs stand and who has the best chance to win the NBA Title.[note]If you already know what Offensive & Defensive Rating is, then stop after the bold and just look at the charts)[/note]

 

For a longer more in-depth explanation keep reading.[note]As you have been, and are still doing[/note]

 

Frequently on sports radio and Twitter, talking heads will say that teams “had to be in the top 10 in offense and defense to win a championship.” Which always sounded too broad and non-researched to be true. So we took to NBA.com/stats to try and find out for ourselves.

 

Ranking by simple Points Allowed and Points Scored doesn’t give us a good measure of efficiency because it doesn’t account for pace of play. The famous “7 Seconds of Less” Suns in 2005 played up-tempo and fast, so they scored a lot of points very quickly.[note]Which they really did[/note]

 

That means they also had a ton of defensive possessions and had numerous opportunities to be scored on.[note]Which they did[/note]

 

We could measure and track Field Goal Percentage and Field Goal Percentage Allowed, but similar problems arise. Field Goal Percentage doesn’t account for free throws or for good defensive plays. If you get a steal on defense, go coast-to-coast and dunk that action only improves your offensive Field Goal Percentage, not your Field Goal Percentage Allowed because the opposing team never got a shot off.

 

 

So we started to dive into advanced stats and one that immediately jumped out was Offensive & Defensive Rating.[note]Or what we’re calling Mos Def Ratings… I mean Off/Def Ratings[/note]

 

Offensive Rating tracks the number of points scored per 100 possessions and Defensive Rating tracks the number of points allowed per 100 possessions.  For example, last season the Dallas Mavericks ranked 10^th in Offensive Rating scoring 104.8 points per 100 possessions and 16^th in Defensive Rating allowing 104.3 points per 100 possessions.  Giving them a Net Rating of 0.5.[note]Which is average, 13th in NBA[/note]

 

That seemed like a good measuring stick to try and calculate how efficient a team is on both offense and defense, but does the narrative stack up? Do only Top 10 ranked teams win championships? We recorded every champion’s regular season Off/Def Ratings over the last 20 years (The Off/Def Rating stats on NBA.com are limited to the last 20 seasons) and here they are:

 

It seems to be all over the map but there are a few trends.

 

The initial theory that teams needed to be Top 10 in both Off & Def Rating kind of broke down with the 2010 Lakers (11th Off), 1998 Bulls (12th Off), and the two eventual exceptions to the rule: the 2004 Pistons (20th Off) and 2001 Lakers (18th Def).

 

We expanded the rule to include the Top 12 but it seemed excessive to expand to the 18th & 20th rankings for two more exceptions. Bringing the stat to the 90% advertised. Meaning…

 

90% of the last twenty NBA Champions were ranked in the top 12 in both Offensive and Defensive Ratings.

 

If you specify this statistic to the last 12 years that percentage rises to 100%. Every team that won the championship the last 12 years has ranked in the top 12 in both Offensive & Defensive Rating. Every single team. I’m repeating this statement for emphasis.[note]EMPHASIS![/note]

 

This year we’re going to track the rankings of the top 12 teams in Off/Def Rating to give us a better look at who is on pace to win the NBA Championship. The teams that rank in the Top 12 in both Offensive & Defensive Rating will be awarded membership into The 90% Club.[note]This statistic has previously been 89.5 The Club and The 86 Club, notice the improved photoshop skills[/note]

 

This stat will continue to be improved and change over time as more teams qualify for The Club, as the Cavaliers (4^th in Off Rtg & 10^th in Def Rtg) did last season.  For reference, here is where the Mavericks were at the end of last season as well as the complete top 12 Off/Def Ratings list. The highlighted teams are the ones that would qualify or are close to qualifying for The 90% Club.

 

 

Then we’ll take those figures and rank each qualifying team by combined ratings to create: The 90% Club Rankings.

 

So keep following here on Mavs Fanatic as we track The 90% Club to find out where the Mavericks stand and who else can/could/will win the NBA Championship.