Forecast Says The Mavericks Shouldn’t Make a Trade Before the Deadline

 

The past[note]entire season….[/note] few months Mavericks Fans have been clamoring for some type of roster move. There have been a ton of names mentioned, just read this thread from a tweet we posted just yesterday…

 

Hey, #MFFL! We are giving away 2 tickets to #DALvsORL! Here's what you need to do:

1) RT this
2) reply w/ a realistic Mavs trade scenario

— Dallas Sports Fanatic (@Dallas_Fanatic) February 11, 2017

 

Brook Lopez, Nerlens Noel, Iman Shumpert, Jahlil Okafor, Jusuf Nurkic[note]Who was just moved yesterday[/note], Tristan Thompson, Serge Ibaka, DeMarcus Cousins, Tyson Chandler, and even Rajon Rondo[note]That person was admittedly joking, we hope[/note] were some of the suggestions made by MFFLs in our mentions.  The two Mavericks included in those suggestions most often have been Deron Williams[note]who Rick Carlisle said was playing at “an all-star level before his injury”[/note] and Andrew Bogut.

 

 

The Elements

 

Williams has missed 25% of the Mavericks games[note]35 of 141, including playoffs[/note] over the past two seasons, but when Williams does play, he averages about 14 points, 6 assists, and 3 rebounds per game. Those numbers might not sound fantastic but there are only 15 other players that can boast better averages over the last two years[note]You know they’re all good because most of them are known by one name[/note]:

 

LeBron James, James Harden, Russell Westbrook, Stephen Curry, John Wall, Chris Paul, Kyle Lowry, Isaiah Thomas, Damian Lillard, Mike Conley, Eric Bledsoe, Goran Dragic, Jeff Teague, Jrue Holiday, and Reggie Jackson.

 

Deron’s numbers are on the low end of that list but those are some of the best names in basketball and he has the lowest usage rate of any name in that group. Williams isn’t the 20/10 point guard that made the three All-Star teams in a row and challenged Chris Paul for the title of “Best Point Guard in the NBA” anymore, but he’s still a serviceable guard and could really help a team looking to go on a title run.

 

Andrew Bogut, who has also missed a significant number of games this season[note]28 of  53[/note], was just traded to the Mavericks seven months ago and it seems as though Mavericks fans have wanted to trade him ever since. Bogut. Initially, Bogut seemed like a capable frontcourt partner for Dirk Nowitzki, but the two have only played 72 minutes together this season and the 7-foot two-man lineup ranks last on the Mavericks in scoring per 100 posessions[note]69 points, compare that number to last season when a 2-man lineup of Bogut and Draymond Green scored 113 points per 100 possessions[/note]. Since December 1st, Bogut has played 137 minutes in games where Dirk Nowitzki was available, and the two have only played 7 minutes together. It’s safe to say the Bogut/Dirk frontcourt experiment is over in Dallas.

 

Whether that means Bogut’s time in Dallas is finished or not there have been trade rumors surrounding the Australian Big Man for months. But Bogut isn’t even a full season removed from playing twenty crucial minutes per game for the 73-Win-Warriors last year and could provide great defense, passing, and veteran leadership to a playoff contender as well.

 

That being said, just because Williams and Bogut are viable trade chips doesn’t mean the Mavericks should or will trade them. Donnie Nelson and the front office haven’t executed a trade since July 9th, 2015 when they shipped a 2nd Round Pick to the Bucks for Zaza Pachulia. A trade that Jared Dudley basically called a favor to Zaza because the Milwaukee Buck’s GM John Hammond wanted to “look out for him” as Dudley said to Chris Vernon of The Ringer in a podcast last week.

 

The last trade the Mavericks made before acquiring Zaza?

 

 

 

 

The Volnadocane

 

December 18th, 2014: The Boston Celtics shipped Dwight Powell and Rajon Rondo to Dallas for Jae Crowder, Jameer Nelson, Brandan Wright, a 2016 1st Round Pick[note]Boston chose Guerschon Yabusele who some people call the French Draymond Green the Mavs could use any ethnicity of Draymond Green at this point…[note], and a 2016 2nd Round Pick.[note]Boston also received a $13mil Trade Exception in that deal[/note]

 

Besides receiving Dwight Powell, that deal was an absolute disaster and has derailed the Mavericks franchise ever since Donnie Nelson said*, “Yeah, sure we’ll jeopardize our #1 Rated Offense to take a risk on a disgruntled headcase that hasn’t played defense in years!”

*Not an actual quote.

 

If Mavericks trades were natural disasters the Zaza Trade would be a slight breeze and the Rondo Deal would be a Volnadocane which is a made-up term for when a Volcano explodes during a tornado that is also engulfed in a hurricane.  Not only did Rondo’s attitude erupt all over the Mavericks but he also blew his way out of town just as quickly as he arrived leaving only the shattered remains of what was already there before. 

 

The Rondo Volnadocane is a disaster of the highest caliber, but the history of Mavs trades since 2011[note]Since 2011 is a phrase I have heard more Mavs fans say than any other fanbase about any other year[/note] are also semi-disastery.  In the summers of 2013 & 2014 the Mavs made a few deals that may also demand their own made up natural disaster:

 

 

The Other Adverse Events

 

On draft night in June of 2013 the Mavericks made a slew of deals that basically turned Kelly Olynyk (#13)[note]From now on if there’s a number next to a name it means a draft pick from that year[/note], Mike Muscala (#44), Jared Cunningham, and a 2014 2nd Round Pick into Shane Larkin (#18), Ricky Ledo (#43), and Cash.

 

The Mavs exchanged a valuable #13 pick and other assets for a lower pick (#18) while also missing out on drafting Giannis Antetokounmpo, Dennis Schroder, Rudy Gobert, Mason Plumlee, Gorgui Dieng, Solomon Hill, Allen Crabbe, and Joffery Lauverne[note]All of whom are contributing more to real NBA teams than Shane Larkin or Ricky Ledo are, but this isn’t an argument about drafting…[/note].

 

The next summer the Mavericks traded Jose Calderon, Samuel Dalembert, Wayne Ellington, Shane Larkin, and two 2014 2nd Rounders to Knicks for Tyson Chandler and Raymond Felton.

 

So to recap, the Mavericks basically turned Jose Calderon, Samuel Dalembert, Wayne Ellington, Jared Cunningham, a 1st Rounder (#13 in 2013), and three 2nd Rounders into a year of Tyson Chandler and 109 games of Raymond Felton.

 

These two deals can basically be combined because of the similar parts and the natural disaster that would describe it would be a Droughtami. A drought because the Shane Larkin deal left everyone barren and thirsty, then Tsunami because Chandler and Felton came crashing in to try and redeem that situation but ended up just irrigating away.

 

That algebraic equation of deals wouldn’t be so bad if it didn’t include draft picks, especially a pick as high as #13.  Lower level lottery picks have a lower level of success but here are some of the players that have been taken with picks #13-15 recently:

 

Kobe Bryant, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kawhi Leonard, Maurice Harkless, Larry Sanders, Al Jefferson, Richard Jefferson, Rodney Stuckey, Robin Lopez, Marcus Morris, Markieff Morris, and Patrick Patterson.

 

There was value in that pick and the Mavericks basically gave it away with other assets for a lower draft pick and then eventually a one-year rental of Tyson Chandler and Raymond Felton.

 

 

 

 

The Light Breezes

 

The trades the Mavericks made in 2013 and 2012 were fairly insignificant. 

 

July 16, 2014: Mavs sent DeJuan Blair to Wizards for Emir Preldzic who has never played an NBA game.

July 22, 2013: Mavs sent Nick Calathes to Memphis for a 2016 2nd Rounder that they used in the Rondo Volnadocane.

Feb 21, 2013: Mavs sent Dahntay Jones to Atlanta for Anthony Morrow.

July 12, 2012: Mavs sent Ian Mahinmi to Indiana for Darren Collison and Dahntay Jones.

June 29, 2012: Mavs sent Shan Foster and Lamar Odom to Houston and the Clippers respectively for Tradija Dragicevic and Cash.

June 29, 2012: Mavs sent Darius Johnson-Odom (#55) to the Lakers for cash.

June 23, 2011: Mavs sent Jordan Hamilton and Tanguy Ngombo to Portland for Rudy Fernandez and Petteri Koponen.

 

Then there was a fairly decent trade that the Mavs made, on June 29, 2012, the Mavs sent Kelenna Azubuike and Tyler Zeller (#17) to Cleveland for Jae Crowder, Jared Cunningham, and Bernard James.  Jae Crowder has turned into a better player than anyone in Dallas could have hoped, even though he’s doing it in Boston.  This deal would be like a 59-degree day in January, pleasant for the time. But the last few deals the Mavs made between 2011 and now are downright concerning.

 

 

The Severe Weather

 

 

Dec 13, 2011: Mavs sent Corey Brewer and Rudy Fernandez to DEN for a 2016 2^nd Round Pick, which was the other 2^nd Rounder packed in the Rondo Volnadocane…

 

This was basically another salary dump. Fernandez only played 31 games with the Nuggets before heading back to Europe but Corey Brewer, up until recently, was a good role player for a few teams. This deal is a pretty bad hail storm because: salary dump:rain::nuggets:hail[note]Who remembers analogies?[/note]

 

Dec 11, 2011: Mavs sent a 2014 1st Rounder (eventually sent to OKC who selected Mitch McGary) to the Lakers for Lamar Odom, a 2012 2^nd Rounder (the pick that was later sold back to the Lakers), and a Pick Swap in 2013 that never occurred. [/note]The Lakers also received a Trade Exception that they used to acquire Steve Nash from Phoenix[/note] 

 

Lamar Odom was another risk that didn’t pan out in the Mavs favor.  This deal won’t receive a disaster rating because of current events surrounding the participants[note]Get better Lamar[/note].

 

Finally, on Dec 10, 2011, the Mavs participated in a three-team deal that sent Tyson Chandler, a 2012 2^nd Rounder (Darius Miller), Ahmad Nivins, Giorgos Printezis out to Washington and New York for Andy Rautins (Who was waived 5 days later…), a protected 2012 2^nd Rounder that was never sent, and a Trade Exception.

 

This deal was the salary dump heard ’round-the-world that every Mavs fan remembers. The Mavericks paid a 2^nd Round Pick to get rid of NBA Champion and Still-An-NBA-Player Tyson Chandler. The Mavericks lich–erally[note]Chris Traeger Style[/note] received nothing from that deal.  This trade is a Sinkquake because the Mavs front office just shook up the Mavs roster and threw Tyson in a hole they dug themselves. Oh, and the Knicks are the hole, fitting.[note]And no, Taimon did not tell me to write that[/note]

 

 

Take a look at those trades. That list contains every single trade the Mavericks have made since the day they won the NBA Title.  It’s hard to argue that any of them are even net positives for the Mavericks.  Saying the Mavs should trade Deron Williams or Andrew Bogut for a 1^st Rounder or a younger player is nice, but the Mavs history should speak for itself. Even if one of those players are traded, they might not even receive anything in return or worse…