After a successful 2013-14 regular season that concluded with the Dallas Mavericks taking the eventual NBA champs, the San Antonio Spurs to seven games in the first round of the playoffs, the Mavs completely re-tooled nearly half their roster this offseason.
Gone are starters Jose Calderon and Shawn Marion, and Samuel Dalembert along with sixth man Vince Carter. This offseason, the Mavs brought Tyson Chandler home, then signed Chandler Parsons to a lucrative contract, added veteran point guard Jameer Nelson, along with Al-Farouq Aminu, Richard Jefferson, Charlie Villanueva, Greg Smith and Raymond Felton via trade. On paper, the Mavs undoubtedly have one of the deepest teams in the NBA and their most talented team since their 2011 Championship team. Expectations in Dallas have risen and the Mavs have vaulted themselves in the conversation of championship-contenders. So what will it take to get the Mavs back to the promise land?
Here the keys to a successful season for the Mavs:
Tyson Chandler’s Health
Chandler is the most valuable piece to success this season. The Mavs reacquired the defensive big man this summer and, just as in 2011, (10.1 ppg, 9.4 rebs, 1.1 blks) he’s in a contract year. His season averages have dipped (8.7 ppgs, 9.6 rebs, 1.1 blks) though and the tag “always injured” still haunts him. An overlooked aspect to Chandler’s success in 2011 was the presence of Brendan Haywood, who provided roster balance and competition at the center position. Should Tyson Chandler go down for an extended period of time, the dynamic of this team will completely change. Enter Greg Smith and Brendan Wright. Can they provide the same defensive presence that Haywood provided in 2011?
Chandler Parson’s Perri
Over the weekend, the Mavs $46 million man turned a whopping 26 years old. The young chap is financially set for life and on the surface he has little incentive to continue to work hard after earning the huge payday. Just a few months into being a Mavericks, Parsons has already found himself on the wrong side of the headlines after his war of words with James Harden and little brother Dwight Howard, as well has his social media battles with former Rocket’s fans and of course the Rick Carlisle fiasco.
“@Jessiasaur10: Does anyone want this @ChandlerParsons's bobble head???? pic.twitter.com/TsNI3g5Ksz” I'll take it, thanks for being a loyal fan.
— Chandler Parsons (@ChandlerParsons) September 4, 2014
For now, we’ll just call Parson’s summer a Houston Rockets hangover. There are two things I know about Parson’s experience with the Houston Rockets. One, you don’t learn life lessons about maturity and professionalism hanging out with Dwight Howard and two, you don’t get the ball because James Harden doesn’t pass.
Speaking of pass…that’s exactly what Parson’s should have done when Howard and Harden called him just another “role player.” Or when Carlisle publicly criticized his weight. While professionalism will come with time and being around true professionals, a lot will be expected of Parson’s this season. Being ok, won’t cut it here like in Dallas like it does in Houston, and Carlisle will make sure of that. In the meantime; let’s hope Christina Perri doesn’t have the same effect on Chandler as Jessica Simpson did on Tony Romo.
Chemistry
The first 10 games will play a crucial role in determining just how exactly this team gels. It’s possible in the game of basketball to have too many stars on one team, and it’s possible Parsons, Dirk and Monta just aren’t the right fit. For the past decade, the Mavs have been most successful by finding the perfect fit of complimentary players around Dirk. On opening night, the Mavs will have eight new players on their roster, including three new starters – they won’t gel overnight. This team lacks continuity that simply takes time to figure out. Don’t be shocked if the Mavs start the regular season going 6-4. It may take 82 games just to figure out what king of team Rick Carlisle has on his hands. Even in 2011, for much of the season the Mavs looked like just another 50-win team, until they ousted the Portland Trail Blazers in what many thought would be another first round upset; and from then on, the Mavs were a completely different team. In a crowded Western Conference, the Mavs will need to figure things out quickly before they find themselves spending the entirety of the regular season playing “catch up.”
Dirk’s Conditioning
At 36, Dirk has played 1,323 games and logged 48,147 minutes over his 17-year NBA career. While there is no argument that even at his age his name still belongs in the elite class of players in the league, the wear and tear on his body cannot be overlooked. During the 2013-14 seasons, Dirk had to play 32.9 minutes per game because the Mavs desperately needed his firepower just to squeeze into the playoffs. By the time the playoffs rolled around, his conditioning and age were exposed against the San Antonio Spurs, and he struggled to put up quality shots while only averaging 19.1 points per game on 42.9% shooting from the field, after averaging 21.7 points per game in the regular season and nearly 50% from the field. The responsibility will lie on the Parsons and Brandan Wright to relieve Dirk with quality minutes so that he can be refreshed and energized to play at an elite level in the playoffs.
Sixth Man
Age ain’t nothing but a number. Well, unless you give a 37-year old veteran a three-year, $12 million contract, then age is everything. In one of most “Vinsane” moves of the summer, the Memphis Grizzlies swooped in and took the Mavs star sixth man for the past three seasons. The Mavs answered that void by signing veteran small forward Richard Jefferson (10.1 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 1.6 apg) to a minimum, one-year deal. While I certainly believe that Jefferson is capable of playing solid basketball, Vince Carter provided the Mavs a unique spark of the bench that simply cannot be replaced. Even before Vince Carter, Jason Terry filled that role for nearly five seasons with his lights-out shooting that was unmatched around the league. While the plan moving forward will be more of a sixth-man by committee approach with Jefferson and Devin Harris, the model that has worked for nearly the past decade is a huge area of concern for the Mavs.
Bold Suggestion
Chandler Parsons as your sixth man and Richard Jefferson as the Mavs starting small forward. Typically Dirk subs out after about 5 minutes or so into the game and Parsons would then slide into that stretch-four position until Devin Harris and Brandan Wright come in. Hey, a $46 million sixth-man will likely never happen; but the point is the sixth man role, or lack thereof, will be sorely missed this year and will take the Mavs some time to get used to.
Team Outlook
Prediction: 51-31. I’m sure on paper, this looks I’m underselling the Mavs with their added weapons to only a two game improvement from last year. Truth is, the wins are just a number at this point. In a loaded Western Conference, the Mavs will face a playoff-caliber team on what will seem like a nightly basis. Couple that with a fresh slate of new players and the Mavs will have their work cut out for themselves.
This year’s team is focused on preparing for a deep run in the playoffs, unlike last year when they were just hoping to make it into the tournament. My expectation will be that the Mavs will have slow start to the season, while Rick Carlisle instills a defensive mentality and identity for his team. The offense will be there and will come later. The goal in Dallas remains a championship and the blueprint created in 2011 must be followed.
Projected Starters
Jameer Nelson | 12.1 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 7.0 apg
Monta Ellis | 16.8 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 5.7 apg
Chandler Parsons | 16.6 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 4.0 apg
Dirk Nowitzki | 23.7 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 2.7 apg
Tyson Chandler | 8.7 ppg, 9.6 rpg, 1.1 apg
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